Largest Saharan Dust Outbreak So Far this Year Heads to Florida
Disturbance near Central America expected to stay well south of Florida this week
The most widespread Saharan dust outbreak of the year across the tropical Atlantic is spreading into the western Caribbean, on its way to the Gulf of Mexico and parts of South Florida this week. Although we typically see dust peak in the tropical Atlantic around the last week of June, this outbreak is especially noteworthy, as it is the highest measured concentration of dust this early in the year for the tropical Atlantic going back at least 20 years.
Since it takes some time for the big dust outbreaks of northern Africa to reach the United States, Florida typically doesn’t see its dust activity peak until July. This current plume of Saharan dust will be the dustiest air Florida’s seen since the May 20th to May 23rd plume some weeks ago. This dry, dusty air will combine with building high pressure over the southeastern states to really tamp down rain chances and afternoon thunderstorm coverage this week for our area. The only downside will be the higher temperatures, generally reaching the low 90s this week for much of South Florida.
Otherwise across the tropics this week, things look fairly quiet. We’ll be watching some storminess near Central America that the National Hurricane Center is giving a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. Other than the trigger-happy GFS (the GFS has a known convective bias in this part of the Caribbean, with a proclivity for cranking up storms too quickly), our model guidance is generally tepid on development, and that high pressure over Florida should keep anything that develops well to our south and west. Whatever tries to form should be slow over the next several days.