If you’re a regular reader of the daily newsletter, you know our goal is to provide the earliest and most accurate information on any suspicious areas we see in the tropics. Since last week we’ve been spotlighting the Caribbean for potential mischief to end the month, and yesterday we discussed the growing signal in our computer models for broad low pressure forming to our south come early next week.
Last night, the National Hurricane Center added this area to its tropical weather outlook, indicating the possibility of slow development out of the central Caribbean by next week.
The area we’ll be following will originate from low pressure tucked away in the southwestern Caribbean. This low pressure is an extension of a longer strip of low pressure extending from the eastern Pacific known as the monsoon trough, where surface winds collide, creating an elongated area of storminess, low pressure, and background spin. This zone is often the culprit for tropical formation in the eastern Pacific but early and late in the season it can also churn out potential tropical systems on the Caribbean side of Central America.
As we’ve covered in previous newsletters, the western and central Caribbean is a hotbed for tropical development in October and early November, so it’s an area we naturally look to this time of year.
In the case of next week, we have other reasons to keep watch. Both of our major global weather models – the European model, the American GFS, and their ensemble families – are predicting broad low pressure lifting northward from the Caribbean to start next work week.
Just as important, by Monday into Tuesday, we’ll see nearby upper-level winds slacken courtesy of building high pressure aloft. This will create a more hospitable environment for possible development early next week.
That said, there are some critical caveats to the forecast ahead. Models for now show a broad rather than compact, consolidated region of low pressure. Unless that changes in the days ahead, development should be gradual and not quick to occur. An upper-level low will be diving through the Caribbean this weekend before upper-level winds turn more conducive for next week. This means any development or organization of the Caribbean system should hold off until late Sunday or Monday at the earliest.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly for South Florida, a cold front digging through Florida mid next week will lay down a curtain of wind shear starting late Wednesday for our area. So if the Caribbean system organizes next Monday and Tuesday, increasingly strong upper-level winds blasting across Florida will offer a level of protection against threats to home and would act to shunt the system’s storminess to our east.
Obviously with any potential development still several days away, things can change so we’ll want to monitor this area into next week. For now at least models don’t show a strong system and the increasingly hostile upper winds over Florida by middle next week offer reassurance for South Florida. We’ll keep you posted here and on air in the days ahead.
Tammy’s remnants regenerating, bringing gusty winds to Bermuda today and Saturday
Thunderstorm activity is reorganizing this morning around the low-pressure center associated with former Hurricane Tammy east of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is giving the storm system a high chance of regenerating over the next day or two.
Regardless of redevelopment, the large low-pressure system is producing a wide reach of tropical storm winds (39 mph or stronger), stretching nearly 300 miles on its northwest side. As the storm system slides west today, it will bring strong and gusty tropical storm winds to Bermuda, though any heavy rain associated with the system will stay well east.
Forecast models have finally come into agreement with scooting the system east and farther out to sea. Even if Tammy regenerates, it’s not expected to pose a threat to land beyond gusty winds in Bermuda over the next few days.
Thank you.
Thank you wind sheer. We could use the rain down here but anything more would be unwelcome.