It's the Height of the Hurricane Season, but Not a Storm in Sight

No active systems across the Atlantic at the peak of the hurricane season for the first time since 2016

Today is the traditional peak of the hurricane season, the day on which history says we’re most likely to find a named storm in the Atlantic.

Not only isn’t there a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane anywhere to be found across the basin today, there’s not even a viable candidate on the National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook map.

It’s the first time since 2016 we’ve had no active systems anywhere in the Atlantic basin on September 10^th and only the 4^th time this century we’ve recorded a September 10^th shutout.

Since the modern satellite record began in 1966, roughly 3 in 4 years have observed a named storm somewhere in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf on September 10^th. We’ve had as many as 3 simultaneous named storms on September 10^th in years like 2018, 2011, and 2005. Going back even further, 1961 observed 4 concurrent named storms (Betsy, Carla, Debbie, and Esther) on September 10^th – 3 of them hurricanes – still the most named storms and hurricanes of any hurricane season at its peak in the 175-year record book.

As we mentioned in Tuesday’s newsletter, what makes this season especially unusual is the absence of any tropical activity in the two weeks leading up to the September 10^th peak, a feat that’s only been recorded twice in the modern satellite record (1992 and 1968).

Breaking the silence

There’s increasing support from forecast models that the Atlantic basin reopens for business by next week.

A tropical wave set to roll off Africa this weekend should move into an increasingly conducive eastern Atlantic where gradual development is likely, especially by the middle to latter part of next week. Both the physics-based European model and its AI-based counterpart are advertising a track into the central Atlantic by the end of next week.

Forecast low-pressure tracks through next Friday, September 19, 2025, from the traditional European model ensemble system (top) and the European model’s latest AI-based ensemble forecast system (bottom). Both ensemble systems suggest development of a tropical wave moving into the central Atlantic next week. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Google’s DeepMind AI newcomer – a strong performer so far this hurricane season – also indicates good development odds next week for the disturbance, and most models for now lift the system north of the Caribbean and its adjacent islands.

Forecast low-pressure tracks through next Friday, September 19, 2025, from the AI-based Google DeepMind tropical cyclone model. Google DeepMind follows the European model camps showing gradual development over the central Atlantic next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

The Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO will cycle back into a conducive configuration to round out September, so we’ll keep an eye out for prospects in the weeks ahead. For now at least, we don’t see any U.S. threats on the horizon.