Hurricane Watch Issued for Parts of Coastal Maine Ahead of Lee

First Hurricane Watch in 15 years for Maine, Tropical Storm Watches in effect southward to coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Hurricane Lee wind alerts, valid 8 AM EDT, Thursday, September 14, 2023.

On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued hurricane watches for Downeast Maine and parts of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick in Canada ahead of Lee. Tropical storm watches are also in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in anticipation of strong winds above 38 mph on Lee’s western side.

This is the first hurricane watch for Maine in nearly 15 years – since watches were issued ahead of Kyle on September 27, 2008.

Hurricane watches issued by year and month from the National Weather Service for Maine. The last hurricane watch was issued ahead of Hurricane Kyle on September 27, 2008. Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet/Iowa State University

The last time a tropical storm watch was issued for Massachusetts was on July 7, 2021, ahead of Elsa as it accelerated through the eastern U.S. after making landfall in Florida.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm watch are issued 48 hours ahead of the expected onset of tropical storm winds.

Lee’s large circulation to bring widespread impacts

Although Lee will be transitioning to an extratropical storm on approach to New England, it won’t be any less dangerous. The expanding wind field as the hurricane transitions is expected to bring the threat for widespread coastal flooding and erosion as far south as Long Island. A storm surge watch is in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket in Massachusetts for the threat of more serious life-threatening coastal flooding as Lee approaches.

The timing of Lee’s worst weather for New England will be from late Friday through the weekend. Along coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, winds will begin to subside by late Saturday into Sunday.

Heaviest rains will be focused across eastern Maine from Downeast and Acadia through the Maine Highlands where 3-6 inches of rain is possible. Lower totals of up to 4 inches are still possible farther south – primarily in eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Lee’s rains should largely bypass inland areas of Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the National Weather Service from Saturday morning, September 16, 2023, through Sunday morning, September 17, 2023. The greatest risk of heavy rainfall and flooding will occur across eastern portions of Maine from Lee. Credit: National Weather Service/Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

The storm’s greatest impacts will be felt at the coast where strong winds, large waves, and dangerous seas will create hazardous marine conditions. This part of the country has some of the largest tidal swings not only in the country but in the world. The tidal range within the Bay of Fundy just northeast of Maine is nearly 40 feet between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Needless to say, the timing of the strongest onshore winds and storm surge with tidal cycles will greatly affect the extent of coastal flooding. Highest tide on Saturday will occur from noon to 1 PM local and again around midnight for most coastal spots.

Bermuda already feeling tropical storm winds

Starting early Thursday morning, tropical storm winds (wind greater than 38 mph) had already overspread Bermuda from Lee, which was centered over 250 miles southwest of the archipelago. Conditions in Bermuda will deteriorate throughout the day on Thursday, though the worst of the hurricane, including the heaviest rainbands and hurricane force winds, should remain to the west. The weather in Bermuda will improve quickly on Friday as Lee pulls away.

South Florida in the clear despite continued Atlantic activity

Margot is slowly weakening and will wind down by early next week as it meanders over the east-central Atlantic.

Invest 97L located between Africa and the Caribbean is expected to become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. Although it will likely strengthen into Hurricane Nigel by next week, it won’t pose any threat to land in the near future. Bermuda may need to monitor this for next week, but the system is not a concern for the Caribbean islands or U.S. at this time.