Hurricane Season in Like a Lamb

No tropical concerns the first full week of hurricane season, but changes in store by mid June

After all the pre-season hype, it’s only fitting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to see the latest start of any year since at least 2014.

As we covered in Friday’s newsletter, slow starts or delayed activity is mostly inconsequential this time of year, unless the early activity happens far out over the deep Atlantic, which can portend an active season ahead. While the young hurricane season is less than three days old, we don’t see any suspicious areas that could notch the first named storm in the week ahead.

But as the chart below illustrates, the past decade of early bloomers has been the exception, and more typically we wouldn’t expect to see the first named storm in the Atlantic until sometime in middle June.

Formation date of the first Atlantic tropical or subtropical storm since 1970. Red dots and names indicate storms that formed before the official June 1^st start of the hurricane season. Since 1970, the median formation date of the first named storm is June 11^th.

Though water temperatures in the Atlantic are at seasonal records, ocean temperatures are generally not the limiting factor to storm development this time of year. Instead, we look to wind shear – which can quickly topple organizing storms – that’s still prohibitively high across much of the Atlantic.

Formation points for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes for the first two weeks of June for the 1851 to 2023 period of record. Tropical systems preferably form in the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the southeast U.S. coast to start the hurricane season.

In areas where storms usually form during the first half of June – namely the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico – wind shear starts the month at levels that mostly inhibit development but can quickly drop off as the jet stream retreats northward for the summer.

This week, the subtropical jet stream is still ripping through the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean, and the associated strong upper-level winds mean much higher-than-average wind shear in those areas that might otherwise be prone to early season mischief.

Long range computer model ensembles – models run dozens of times to account for subtle differences today that could worsen differences in the future – are in good agreement with the subtropical jet easing up by the middle part of June. This could open the door for more organized storminess as wind shear relaxes down to our south over the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico if any disturbances move in.

Departure from average wind shear this week and from mid June from the European model ensemble system. Strong upper-level jet stream winds are forecast to relax over the next few weeks, lowering wind shear and creating more conducive conditions to development in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean – areas prone to development this time of year (black box). Cooler colors indicate areas of reduced wind shear compared to average. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com

For now, we don’t have anything to hang our hat on, which means settling in and enjoying a quiet week or two to start the season.

The quiet start is timed perfectly with Florida’s disaster preparedness sales tax holiday, which runs through June 14^th. If you haven’t already stocked up on hurricanes supplies, now’s a great time to buy eligible preparedness items – ranging from pet food and leashes to coolers and portable generators – tax free. This could save you hundreds of dollars on more expensive items like generators (capped at $3,000).

Enjoy the tame start to the hurricane season but be ready for when things change. They always do.