Hurricane Season Challenges Forecasts So Far in 2022
Tropical development not expected this week in the Atlantic
There’s an old adage in the prediction business (that can be repurposed for many other professions): you’re only as good as your next forecast. As weather forecasters, we’re routinely humbled by Mother Nature, despite the immense progress made by meteorologists, especially in forecasting hurricanes, where errors have been cut in half since the mid-1990s. Not only do these improved forecasts save countless lives, but they also provide a tremendous economic benefit to the nation, providing over six times the economic benefit to U.S. citizens of what they cost to produce. And contrary to popular belief, meteorologists do get it right more than half the time – about 90 percent of the time, in fact, for a five-day forecast.
Of course, even with these advances and boons in weather science and forecasting, predicting Mother Nature’s next move isn’t without its challenges and frustrations. A good example of this is what’s come so far in the 2022 hurricane season.
In the Atlantic, the season began in early June with a would-be tropical system threatening South Florida. Despite initial forecasts of future-Alex becoming a tropical storm about 350 miles southwest of Florida, the storm didn’t form until several days later when it was about 250 miles northeast of South Florida, with the National Hurricane Center exhaustively declaring “Disturbance Finally Becomes Tropical Storm Alex” that morning.
If Alex wasn’t frustrating enough, three weeks later another disturbance approaching the Caribbean was tagged as a potential tropical cyclone by the Hurricane Center. Though still disorganized, computer model guidance indicated a good chance the system would become the Atlantic’s next Tropical Storm (Bonnie) before reaching the Windward Islands as initial forecasts indicated. A remarkable four days later and over 1300 miles west of the Windward Islands, Bonnie finally formed on approach to Central America. Mercifully, Bonnie didn’t have more time over water to strengthen before reaching the coastlines of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where it showed signs of quick organization.
As Bonnie came ashore in Central America, closer to home another disturbance moving northward from Florida and the Caribbean snuck up on forecasters and formed inland over South Carolina during the extended Fourth of July weekend. The first mention of the system that became Tropical Storm Colin by the National Hurricane Center was a short 12 hours before it formed, when development odds were a paltry ten percent. Organization trends, however, required a special tropical weather outlook to be issued by the NHC less than ten hours later. Shortly thereafter, Colin quickly formed and, less than 24 hours later, quickly went.
The eastern Pacific has been no less frustrating for forecasters this year. Darby, which became the strongest hurricane of 2022 so far, was originally forecast to top out as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm defied forecasts, however, and rapidly strengthened into a powerful 140 mph Category 4 hurricane early last week. Even though forecasters at the Hurricane Center correctly took the over on their forecast, predicting higher intensification than most of the best model guidance, it still fell short. Then after peaking and slowly weakening, Darby continued to defy hurricane forecasts. Rather than continuing to weaken as forecast, the storm restrengthened back into a Category 3 hurricane by mid last week. The whipsaw finally ended over the weekend as Darby petered out south of Hawaii.
This week in the eastern Pacific, the struggles continue. Hurricane Estelle, initially forecast to be yet another strong Category 3 hurricane by today has weakened to a tropical storm over open waters well south of the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico. Like the forecasts for Darby before it, Estelle veered off script and is now expected to steadily unravel in the coming days.
There’s a lesson to be learned in the forecast woes so far in 2022. Even with the challenging storms of late, the forecasts from the experts at NHC continue to be better and more skillful than forecasts from any single computer model and certainly better than chance alone. The forecasters add tremendous value even when the model guidance doesn’t give the best starting place. But even the most skillful, most accurate forecasts of today can be off – sometimes by a lot. It’s why listening to experienced forecasters is so vital during a big weather event and it’s why good decisionmakers use a range of possibilities to plan ahead. Colin was thankfully weak when it popped up over South Carolina and Darby was thankfully well away from land when it took off like a top. The next time we might not be so lucky.
What happened to Estelle? Too high on the wind shear, too cool on the water temps?