Following a New Area of Interest for the Weekend

A disturbance moving into the lower reaches of the Gulf this weekend could develop but odds for now remain low

An area of disturbed weather moving through the western Caribbean is expected to cross into the Bay of Campeche in the lower reaches of the Gulf this weekend where it could gradually organize if the system remains over the waters north of Mexico.

For now, models are tepid on development, but because of the unique catcher’s-mitt-like geography of the Bay of Campeche, systems notoriously outperform model expectations in the region, so it’s something to monitor if a low-pressure area takes shape tomorrow and Sunday.

Low-pressure tracks from the European forecast model ensemble system through next Tuesday, July 1^st. Each line represents a possible forecast low-pressure track based on different starting conditions in the model. Gray lines are very weak and disorganized low-pressure systems whereas warmer colored lines are stronger and more organized systems like hurricanes. Green and blue colored lines indicate low-pressure areas between tropical depression and tropical storm or borderline hurricane strength, respectively. Only one small segment of one line among scores of scenarios shows the possibility of a strong system forming. The European model largely favors a disorganized or weak low-pressure area moving toward northeastern Mexico from the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Hostile wind shear will keep the thunderstorms disorganized today but come tomorrow and Sunday, the disturbance will be moving under a pocket of lighter upper-level winds west of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, which could allow for gradual organization.

Regardless of development, heavy rains will spread into Central America today and southeastern Mexico over the weekend. Steering currents will move the system west-northwest toward northeastern Mexico by early Monday where inclement weather could reach as far north as the Rio Grande Valley in extreme South Texas.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic should stay mostly quiet, with conditions largely unfavorable for development into the first week of July.