The storm is nearly stationary. Plus, the ocean heat content likely was not as deep as expected; so there was more upwelling sooner than anticipated; therefore, a model bust and a weakening of the storm. I guess the models have a tough time handling slow-moving storms and areas of uncertain heat content. The SURFACE water may be at record warmth, but it's the HEAT CONTENT that counts. Heat content ultimately can decide how strong a slow-moving storm gets. Stoms need a sweet spot, kind of slow, but not too fast, over a pool of warm, deep heat content water. Plus light shear. This is what makes hurricanes so dangerous. Danielle is no longer a hurricane due to the lack of big heat content.
The storm is nearly stationary. Plus, the ocean heat content likely was not as deep as expected; so there was more upwelling sooner than anticipated; therefore, a model bust and a weakening of the storm. I guess the models have a tough time handling slow-moving storms and areas of uncertain heat content. The SURFACE water may be at record warmth, but it's the HEAT CONTENT that counts. Heat content ultimately can decide how strong a slow-moving storm gets. Stoms need a sweet spot, kind of slow, but not too fast, over a pool of warm, deep heat content water. Plus light shear. This is what makes hurricanes so dangerous. Danielle is no longer a hurricane due to the lack of big heat content.