Don Forms but Expected to Stay Safely Out to Sea

Remainder of the Atlantic closed for business into next week

Invest 94L – the once non-tropical area of low pressure over the open North Atlantic – underwent an impressive metamorphosis on Thursday, shedding its old frontal shell and gaining enough tropical features to be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Don – the 4^th named storm of the hurricane season. If we include the posthumously declared unnamed subtropical storm in January, this makes five tropical or subtropical storms so far in 2023, a remarkable pace for the Atlantic surpassed only by 2021, 2020, and 2005 – all very busy hurricane seasons.

Don has likely already peaked in strength as dry air erodes thunderstorms near its center and it hangs a left toward cooler waters. The storm will be blocked by high pressure to its north from making much progress over the coming days but will eventually circle back southward around high pressure steering to its south. If Don survives the weekend, it may have an opportunity to regain some vigor next week as it moves back southward toward warmer waters. Regardless, the storm will remain over open waters and poses no threat to land.

The Atlantic otherwise will lay dormant into next week as dry air and seasonally strong wind shear shut down the deep tropics for now.