Disturbance Inland over Belize and Southeastern Mexico
Elsewhere, all quiet across the tropical Atlantic
The tropical disturbance we’ve been tracking this week in the Caribbean – formerly known as 93L – is rotating inland over Belize and northern Guatemala this morning. Due to proximity to land and moderate wind shear, the system never found its footing as it tracked along the coastline of Central America over the past several days. Because it’s expected to remain inland, with its circulation getting absorbed by the edges of now Tropical Depression Celia in the eastern Pacific, further organization and development isn’t expected.
Interestingly, the disturbance is now positioned directly under an upper-level high pressure system, typically a conducive configuration for storm development, as the co-location of low pressure below and high pressure above both reduces wind shear and aids in storm outflow. In this instance, the presence of high pressure aloft is inconsequential to the disturbance, since without a fuel source – the warm Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico – it’s dead in the water, or in this case dead over land. The high pressure is, however, creating hurdles for Celia in the eastern Pacific as a source of easterly wind shear across the struggling system.
Of course, it doesn’t take an organized tropical system to create problems. Heavy rainfall will continue to be an issue for parts of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico this weekend.
Out in the eastern Pacific, twin tropical systems – Blas and Celia – are churning over open waters, but neither shows much promise of strengthening. Blas is headed toward the cooler Pacific graveyard, while Celia, continues to battle some stiff upper-level winds courtesy of the upper level high over the Yucatan. Celia’s outer rainbands will overlap with the storminess associated with former 93L on the Atlantic side, worsening the flash flood threat to parts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Both storms are forecast to stay offshore.
Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, nothing on the horizon at least through the holiday weekend.