Development Window Closing as Disturbance Heads for Central America
Invest 97L expected to bring the potential for flooding rains from Nicaragua northward to Belize this weekend
Despite upper-level winds turning more conducive to development since yesterday, so far the disturbance known as 97L has been unable to muster up much in the way of organized storminess. The low-pressure area still has another day or two over water to organize before moving inland – likely along the coast of Nicaragua – on Saturday.
Regardless of development, the upshot for Central America will be extremely heavy rain through the weekend. Forecast models continue to advertise the possibility of rainfall totals topping 15 to 20 inches, stretching up into parts of Guatemala and Belize in the days ahead. These totals will likely result in flash flooding and the potential for dangerous mudslides across the mountainous terrain of Central America beginning on Friday.
For us in South Florida, this won’t pose any threat down the road. Models have fallen into line with staunch high pressure north of the system forcing 97L or what forms from it southwestward toward the eastern Pacific into early next week.
Atlantic quieting down in the waning weeks of the hurricane season
By this point in the hurricane season, typically 95% of Atlantic hurricane activity is behind us. Beyond next week, long-range models show wind shear really ramping up throughout the tropical Atlantic, which should largely shut down the Atlantic for the season – welcome news for all of us ready to enjoy the more pleasant and peaceful weather of South Florida’s dry season.
I feel sympathy for those who are getting so much rain in Central America. I hope they can all stay safe.