Depression Forms, Forecast to Strike Central America as a Hurricane
Otherwise quiet across the tropical Atlantic into next week
The system formerly designated Invest 91L in the Caribbean was tagged a Potential Tropical Cyclone yesterday morning by NHC and then upgraded to the 13th Tropical Depression of the Atlantic hurricane season by last night. The system should soon become Julia and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before striking Central America late this weekend into early next week. The biggest threat with this one will be life-threatening flooding and mudslides from copious rainfall over the coming days.
Only a handful of tropical cyclones have formed or moved as far south as Tropical Depression 13 in the Caribbean. Other low-traveling systems include Alma (1974), Greta (1978), Joan (1988), Bret (1993), Isidore (2002), and two unnamed hurricanes in 1892 and 1877. Of the nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic record book, this one’s dancing on the southern edge.
The system is already responsible for widespread flooding through the southern Caribbean, including in Trinidad and Tobago where heavy rains caused major damage and numerous landslides over the past several days. Intensity guidance suggests good odds of quick strengthening as TD 13 pulls away from South America and heads into the western Caribbean this weekend. Regardless, the potential for heavy rainfall and big flooding will remain the concern from the northern tip of Colombia to the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Otherwise, the tropics should simmer down next week. We’ll keep an eye out for any mischief along the tails of fall cold fronts as they sink down into the still-warm Gulf and western Atlantic waters but for now we don’t see any signs of trouble.
I guess the season shuts down after THIS storm. I am not sure there's really a 100% chance of Julia as they designated last night. Nothing is a SURE thing; it was supposed to be Julia as early as last night and it still hasn't done so. I say NEVER designate 100% chance; that's the FIRST time I've EVER seen a 100% designation, by the way. There's always a chance it may NEVER be a named storm. The proof is gonna have to be in the pudding. Once that proof is in the pudding, then we can talk about a possible hurricane for later on.