Busy Eastern Pacific, Tranquil Tropical Atlantic
No development expected across the Atlantic at least into middle next week
In an unexpected development, the tropical eastern Pacific is off to a very busy start to its hurricane season, which began back in mid-May. Since Agatha formed on May 28th, the eastern Pacific has racked up more tropical energy through mid-July than any season since 2015, only lagging 1984, 1992, 2015, and 1978 in as much tropical activity this early in the season.
Much of this jumpstart in activity can be attributed to Hurricane Darby, which earlier this week surprised forecasters by rapidly strengthening into an impressive Category 4 hurricane over open waters despite an only marginally conducive environment. Darby is now a mostly naked swirl of clouds, expected to move about 100 miles south of the Big Island of Hawai’i today, having traveled over 2600 miles through the eastern and central Pacific, maintaining hurricane strength for a remarkable 1800 miles of this journey.
Some 3,000 miles east of Darby in the eastern Pacific, about 300 miles south of the southern Mexico coast, Estelle formed yesterday and is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Although it’s expected to strengthen in the coming days, Estelle poses no threat to land.
On the flip side, the Atlantic shows no immediate signs of springing back to life. Thanks to sinking, stable air the last few weeks and another dust outbreak from the sands of the Sahara – the largest since early June – the Atlantic has gone dormant. This is only temporary, of course, but we’ll enjoy the peaceful period while we have it, which should stretch into next week.