Breaking the Silence of an Unprecedented Atlantic Dry Spell

The Atlantic is 18 days removed from its last active tropical system. Could the dry spell end this week?

It’s been 18 days since the Atlantic basin has seen any active system (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), an unprecedented dry spell through what is traditionally the most active stretch of the hurricane season. In the modern satellite era (since 1966), we’ve never seen a shutout during this very active 18-day window of the season, when on average 4 named storms and 2 hurricanes form each season.

Although the hurricane season comes in fits and starts, with this extended lull at the peak, the 2025 hurricane season is quickly running a deficit and as of today overall activity is almost 50% below average.

To-date the Atlantic basin has recorded the lowest activity since 2014 and, with only one hurricane so far (Category 5 Hurricane Erin), the fewest hurricanes through September 15th since 2002.

Of course, we need only go back to 2024 to find a heavily backloaded hurricane season, with our worst and most destructive hurricanes hitting in late September and October after another unusual mid-season lull. So while we should enjoy the peak-season drought, we also shouldn’t assume it’ll stick around. If the Atlantic’s struggles are related to the issues we’ve covered extensively in past newsletters, the shift in preferred formation zones closer to the U.S. in October could give it renewed life.

Gabrielle on deck

It’s been a tough slog for would-be storms this September – such as Invest 91L which abruptly fizzled earlier in the month after NHC gave it a 90% chance of developing. But a disturbance we’ve been following since early last week looks like it might clear the high hurdles to become Gabrielle by the end of the week.

Though there’s a medium chance of it becoming a tropical depression or named storm over the next few days, it’s not until late week and the weekend that conditions become more conducive to more pronounced development.

Unlike previous systems, the tropical wave is accompanied with a decent envelope of showers and thunderstorms, though for now the storminess is disorganized. Latest satellite wind estimates also suggest it has a ways to go yet in developing a healthy circulation so we’re still in the early stages.

Nevertheless, most of our reliable computer models are bullish on its development, especially by this weekend and early next week, but also turn the system north of the Caribbean islands and keep it over open waters in the week ahead.

We’ll of course watch the trends since we’re early in the game, but this one isn’t a land threat for now.

Watching the waves into late September

While we don’t see any big contenders on the map yet, models are hinting at some gradual development with a tropical wave expected to exit the African coast in the next few days. Development odds this week will be low but it’s something we’ll monitor for the islands.