August Hurricanes: Where Do They Form? Where Do They Hit?

August is a decisive turning point in the hurricane season with some of the most notorious hurricanes in history

It’s August, a big month for the hurricane season when activity ramps up in a hurry and powerful hurricanes can threaten from every direction. It’s not the busiest month of the hurricane season – that’s reserved for September – but it isn’t without its share of memorable and notorious names.

Katrina (2005), Andrew (1992), Camille (1969), Harvey (2017), Laura (2020), Charley (2004), Ida (2021), Alicia (1983), Allen (1980). Deadly and destructive hurricanes dating back to the Great 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane and before paid us a visit in August.

Unlike in June and July, the hurricanes that threaten the U.S. in August tend to form farther away over the Atlantic. The hurricane conveyor belt from Africa to the Bahamas is in full swing, especially by late August, and give storms ample opportunity to reach their peak intensity over some of the warmest waters of the hurricane season.

For us in southeast Florida, we need to be wary of threats from the east, particularly storms that spin up near or over the Bahamas. While September and October are the months we’re most at-risk for a hurricane hit in South Florida, it’s in August when we see the greatest threats for head-on hits from the Atlantic, rather than from the Gulf, as the Bermuda high that whisks storms in from the Atlantic is at its strongest.

The states most commonly in the crosshairs for August hurricanes are Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and North Carolina, with August being the month Texas is most likely to see a hurricane strike.

That said, very few coastal states haven’t seen an August hurricane impact at some point in our extensive record books. Even the northeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic are fair game for August hurricane threats.

Stormier Atlantic to start August but no specific threats

As we’ve advertised, the Atlantic will be starting the month with a stormier pattern than we’ve seen most of the season. Lower pressures will begin to dominate the tropical belt over the next few weeks and we continue to broadly see an uptick in potential activity.

Probability that a tropical storm will pass within about 175 miles of a given location from August 11-15, 2025, from the European forecast model ensemble system. About 100 different scenarios are considered in the forecast, which shows broadly an uptick in possible activity into the middle part of the month. For now, odds are low, indicating no easily identifiable threats. Credit: ECMWF

That said, we don’t see any significant development threats at the moment and NHC continues to advertise no organized activity into next week.

The only area we may see some development in the near-term is along a stalled cold front draped over western Atlantic waters off the Carolinas early next week.

Forecast low-pressure tracks through early next Wednesday (August 13, 2025) from the European model ensemble system. The low-pressure tracks are from a series of non-tropical low-pressure zones along a stalled front, but we’ll keep an eye on this part of the Atlantic since waters are abnormally warm and could support slow development. Credit: Weathernerds.org

We’ll keep an eye out for anything that festers here, especially with waters being as abnormally warm as they are, but for now, the threat appears low.